The Emerging Mobility Ecosystem
Industries facing changes and disruptions across multiple time horizons.
Automotive
Government
Financial services
Infrastructure
Telecommunications and technology
Consumer
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Automotive
We expect the market to divide into two main areas. Some incumbent OEMs should remain ‘Metalsmiths’, manufacturing ever more sophisticated vehicles but losing the end customer interface as they sell into mobility services fleets. Meanwhile, others will evolve to become new ‘Gridmasters’ that continue to manufacture vehicles, but also provide platforms for a variety of customer (mobility) services. Vehicle brands and driving performance may cease to be the key purchase decision criteria; customers may look instead for a strong user interface and vehicle utility. This trend could well open the door for technology players to become the main customer interface.
Government
A decline in hydrocarbon fuel sales would significantly reduce tax revenues, whilst the impact on public transport systems remains uncertain. Governments globally should therefore assess the impact of this change and look at alternative sources of revenue – such as taxing miles traveled. They should also consider how to support or directly fund new technologies that could be exported for national gain. Developing new sectors is particularly important given the social impact of likely job losses in sectors like commercial driving. We expect local authorities and cities to play an important role in adoption, with policies and regulation strongly influencing market entry decisions by leading players.
Financial Services
Huge changes are expected in a sector with strong ties to high-value vehicle assets.24 As vehicles become autonomous, individuals may no longer require insurance coverage, forcing providers to develop product liability solutions to sell into major mobility services fleets. Within the payments market, new mobility services, such as charge point payments and mobility services contracts, call for innovative new payment mechanisms. And as fleets and companies transition to new technologies and business models, there will be a huge reliance on financing from both new and traditional sources. In vehicle finance – traditionally a key driver of car sales – the focus is likely to shift from individual finance to new mobility fleets. Finance will be a key part of future automotive strategies, as demonstrated by several recent OEM acquisitions.
Infrastructure
Aside from the immediate requirement for EV charging points, the typically slowerpaced infrastructure market should be impacted in a number of ways. Private infrastructure players, such as parking lots, need to manage potentially rapid changes in driving behavior, as AVs collect and drop off passengers (or re-charge) rather than park. This could regenerate urban landscapes, as prime real-estate gets used for last-mile delivery, charging and SMR hubs, data centers, entertainment or leisure. Local transport authorities should evolve, to manage not just physical infrastructure but also data exchanges, integration and maintenance of transport services. ‘Smart’ traffic management may become increasingly important, as AVenabled mobility increases the total miles traveled.
Telecommunications, Media and Technology
Data – the key foundation of future mobility – presents huge opportunities for telco, media and technology organizations across the emerging interconnected ecosystem. CAVs will generate and use unprecedented levels of data, whilst mobility providers depend on digital platforms and databases to execute their services. Communications infrastructure – whether 5G or other technologies – is essential to support vehicleto-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) sensing and communication applications.
Consumer
With drivers freed from the shackles of driving, retail, entertainment and health providers have a great opportunity to market content for consumption during journeys, particularly as vehicles become more connected. However, there may well be a battle for the interface that consumers use to access these services – through their personal phones or the vehicle itself.
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